Аналитика

The Ukrainian Government has approved the 2009 privatization list. The major names are the same again: fixed-line communication operator Ukrtelecom [UTEL], turbine producer Turboatom [TATM], ammonia and carbamide producer and operator of ammonia pipeline Odesa Portside Plant (OPP), 60% shares in each of four electricity generators (CEEN, DNEN, DOEN and ZAEN) and 25-27% shares in six electricity distributors (CHEON, LVON, ODEN, POON, PREN and Sumyoblenergo). The government didn’t specify in which way the privatization process will be arranged. It also hasn’t decided how much it expects to gain from the privatization of all the above-mentioned companies. However, it has already urged the State Property Committee of Ukraine to gain UAH 3 bln from privatization in the first quarter of 2009.

В то время, как акции Украинских компаний, подобно западным бумагам, демонстрируют негативную динамику, Украинские долговые бумаги являются привлекательны¬¬м инвестиционным инструментом, как для внутренних, так и для зарубежных игроков. В данном отчете мы предоставляем инвестиционные идеи по бумагам, которые, как мы считаем, характеризуются наилучшим соотношением надежности и доходности.

On the November 11, 2008 the Carlsberg Group – the holding company for Slavutych –held a conference on the latest tendencies on the Ukrainian beer market and released 9M2008 financial consolidated results for Slavutych and Lvivska Pyvovarnia. In spite of the slowdown of the Ukrainian beer market, Slavutych was able to increase its sales 48% YoY in value terms and expand its position on the domestic market, reaching 23.8% in 9 months 2008. We reiterate our BUY recommendation for Slavutych and put the target price of the company’s shares under review.

12 ноября 2008 г. 272,57 млн. акций Харцызского Трубного Завода (10,49%) перешла из рук в руки. Примечательно, что сделка прошла через ПФТС; цена составила 2,12 грн (0,367 долл.) за акцию, и общая сумма сделки составила 100,15 млн. долл. Мы считаем, что сделка не была технической. Напротив, транзакция, вероятно, свидетельствует о том, что Метинвест нуждается в наличности, скорее всего для какого-либо поглощения. Пакет акций может выступать в качестве залога. Дальнейшие объемные сделки по акциям ХТЗ могут свидетельствовать в пользу продажи Метинвестом контрольного пакета, но только в случае, если появятся дополнительные аргументы в пользу этого варианта.

Пересмотр перспектив «Укрнафты» учитывает резко пониженные ожидания, но, тем не менее, показывает, что акции недооценены.

Real estate developers face significant problems that are preventing them from completing existing projects. The demand for real estate has dropped significantly due to currency fluctuation in Aug-Nov and the fact that mortgage interest rates skyrocketed from 15.7% (Apr 2008) to an average of 23.2% in UAH and from 11.7% to 17.5% in USD. Prices on the secondary real estate market dropped USD 4% in Sep-Oct 2008. The recent slowdown of construction works and the increase in mortgage interest rates, along with the banking system crisis, has forced the Cabinet of Ministers to create a special working group to implement a number of measures towards reducing negative consequences in the construction sector, which could lead to a high unemployment rate and the real estate sector’s slowdown. Depending on the effectiveness of implementing the below-listed anti-crisis measures, we think that a real estate prices in Kyiv could fall, varying from a slight decrease of 10-15% in a best-case scenario up to 25-30% in a worst-case scenario. In Ukraine’s regions, they could drop 10-15% in the short term, with about a two-month time lag behind the capital. However, we view the construction sector as a far more attractive sector for long-term investment.

The President of Uzbekistan recently signed the “2009 Investment Program”. The overall 2009 CapEx will amount to USD 7.8 bln including USD 1.4 bln FDI. USD 0.9 bln FDI will be invested in the oil & gas sector. Implications of the 2009 investment program include: the building of new roads, bridges, gas and water pipelines; the building of new public health and educational structures and other establishments; the modernization of several industrial enterprises. As a result, we assume that particular companies will be the focus and benefit from the investments in Uzbekistan next year:

The Open Joint Stock Company ‘Kuvasaycement’ is the number three producer of cement in Uzbekistan with a total capacity of 1 mln metric tons of Portland cement per year. The products of Kuvasaycement are exported to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The company plans to expand its CapEx in order to double its cement capacities by 2009 and fulfill more government orders. Currently, the Government of Uzbekistan is planning to undertake a vast infrastructure development program and requires more construction materials than ever before.

Корпоративная структура группы Енакиевского МЗ требует подчистки: ОАО «Енакиевский МЗ» и ООО СП Метален следует объединить. Мы предполагаем, что реорганизация: (1) состоится до конца года, (2) будет следовать определенному сценарию, и (3) будет позитивной для акций группы Енакиевского МЗ.

We decided to review our forecasts for Volyn-Cement [VOLC] as the factory is highly dependent on local real estate developers, that face significant problems in terms of financing existing and new construction projects. We also expect increased pressure due to gas prices increase in 2009. Under current financial crisis conditions, we have revised WACC components, the risk free rate and market risk premium for Ukrainian equities. However, we maintain our BUY recommendation for VOLC shares with a target price of USD 11.2 and an upside of 117%.