Research

Finding itself in a situation characterized by a fiscal deficit and a deteriorating economic situation, both in Ukraine and worldwide, the Ukrainian Government decided to resume the privatization of large state-owned property in 2009, including the privatization of power distributing companies (oblenergos). On March 18 and April 1, 2009, Ukraine’s State Property Fund announced the auction for privatizing the blocking package of six electricity distribution companies. The auctions are scheduled on April-May 2009.

The economic crisis has been unwinding rapidly in Ukraine, forcing many economists to revise their earlier forecasts regarding the macroeconomic scenarios in 2009. Namely, the depth of the real sector downturn, the substantial devaluation of the hryvnia caused by panic on the foreign exchange market, and a weak government response to changing economic conditions are among the factors that were not entirely anticipated by either domestic or foreign analysts.

The energy sector in Ukraine is one of the country’s great assets. A country with a population of 47 mln and heavy industries generates significant demand for electricity. Currently there are 27 major electricity distribution companies (oblenergos) in Ukraine, 20 of which are public. This enables equity investors to play the Ukrainian electricity distribution sector on the stock market and gain benefits from the ongoing changes in the sector. The Ukrainian electricity distribution sector is one of the hottest on the stock market. After growing 208% YoY, on average, in 2007, the cumulative MCap of electricity distribution companies fell 90% YoY in 2008. Considerably low prices suggest that equities can be acquired for a penny; however, high spreads and low liquidity suggest that the investments should be held for a long time.

The instability regarding currency exchange has become the main theme in Ukrainian life these days. Severe UAH devaluation has cast doubt on the ability of some Ukrainian companies to meet their FX obligations, as well as the ability of retail loan borrowers to repay their FX debts. Ukraine’s President Viktor Yuschenko, NBU Chairman of the Board Volodymyr Stelmakh and Ukraine’s Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk have made a series of important declarations about their intentions and further actions regarding the stabilization of the situation in the banking sector and the FX market. As well, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has said that she wants the President to resign the NBU’s Chairman of the Board, the respective draft legislation for which has already been registered in the Parliament. We would like to provide our view about the latest declarations made by authorities.

Belarus (literally translated as ‘White Rus’) is a landlocked economy in transition, located in Eastern Europe and neighboring Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Motor Sich is the only Ukrainian company and one of the world’s largest companies engaged in the development, production, testing and repair of modern aviation engines. The main driver of the company’s net revenue growth is the expected significant increase in helicopter and aircraft production in Russia, as well as the growth in demand for this equipment in other developing countries with which Russia has historically maintained close relationships. Despite Russian authorities’ announcement about starting-up the serial production of helicopter and missile engines in Russian plants, we are skeptical about the timely realization of these plans. We see the most probable and advantageous way for both parties is close cooperation in engine production.

The Ukrainian Government has approved the 2009 privatization list. The major names are the same again: fixed-line communication operator Ukrtelecom [UTEL], turbine producer Turboatom [TATM], ammonia and carbamide producer and operator of ammonia pipeline Odesa Portside Plant (OPP), 60% shares in each of four electricity generators (CEEN, DNEN, DOEN and ZAEN) and 25-27% shares in six electricity distributors (CHEON, LVON, ODEN, POON, PREN and Sumyoblenergo). The government didn’t specify in which way the privatization process will be arranged. It also hasn’t decided how much it expects to gain from the privatization of all the above-mentioned companies. However, it has already urged the State Property Committee of Ukraine to gain UAH 3 bln from privatization in the first quarter of 2009.

While Ukrainian equities, similar to most of their foreign counterparts, are demonstrating negative dynamics with the PFTS Index’s YTD fall of 76.9%, Ukrainian fixed income instruments demonstrate attractive investment opportunities for both domestic and foreign players. In this paper we present the top investment ideas about what we believe to be the most secure fixed income investments with the highest yield.

On the November 11, 2008 the Carlsberg Group – the holding company for Slavutych –held a conference on the latest tendencies on the Ukrainian beer market and released 9M2008 financial consolidated results for Slavutych and Lvivska Pyvovarnia. In spite of the slowdown of the Ukrainian beer market, Slavutych was able to increase its sales 48% YoY in value terms and expand its position on the domestic market, reaching 23.8% in 9 months 2008. We reiterate our BUY recommendation for Slavutych and put the target price of the company’s shares under review.

On November 12, 2008, 272.57 mln of shares of Khartsyzk Pipes & Tubes (10.49%) changed hands. Most remarkably, the deal went through the PFTS exchange, the price being UAH 2.12 (USD 0.367) per share, for the deal’s total of USD 100.15 mln. We argue that the deal was not technical, and instead likely indicates that Metinvest needs cash, likely for an acquisition. The shares may now serve as the collateral. Should more HRTR deals go through, it may indicate a complete and permanent sellout, but only with additional support for such a possibility.