Economy and politics

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, industrial output was down 18.4% YoY in September. However, positive MoM dynamics of 1.9% was shown. Therefore, industrial output in January-September 2009 dropped by 28.4% YoY. The cross-sectoral data is pending. According to earlier released data, industrial output has fallen 23.3% YoY in August, and 29.6% YoY in January-August 2009. Industrial output has dipped 3.1% in 2008.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee the retail sales of have dropped 20.7% YoY in January-September 2009 to UAH 164.96 bln (USD 20.67 bln). Previously, it was reported that the retail sales have dropped 20.5% YoY in January-August 2009 and grown 17.9% in 2008.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the merchandise balance declined by a further USD 628 mln into deficit in August. Therefore, the merchandise balance in January-August reached a deficit of USD 3.76 bln, representing a 70.1% YoY decline. The Committee noted that merchandise exports have dropped 49.4% YoY in January-August to USD 23.75 bln, while merchandise imports have contracted 53.8% YoY to USD 27.51 bln. The merchandise balance demonstrated a USD 18.53 bln deficit in 2008, an estimated 10.3% of the country’s GDP.

According to a note from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), foreign reserves have dipped 2.6% MoM (USD 0.74 bln) to USD 28.13 bln in SeptemberThe NBU reported negative balance of the interbank currency market interventions of USD 1.23 bln in September. Therefore, foreign reserves have contracted 10.8% YtD (USD 3.42 bln). According to the earlier reports the reserves had shrunk 2.6% MoM in August 2009 and 2,8% YoY in 2008.

According to Ukrainian Statistics agency, in April-June 2009, real GDP in Ukraine decreased by 17,8% compared to April-June 2008. The largest fall in gross value added saw the construction sector (-47%), processing industry (-33%), mining industry (-20%) and trade (-18%). The only sector of the real economy which showed a slight increase (+2%) was agriculture. Nominal GDP for April-June amounted UAH 207 096 mln. GDP deflator in the 2 quarter of 2009 was 7.8% YoY. In the 1 st quarter 2009 real GDP declined by 20% YoY.

The IMF Board of Directors approved the provision of the third tranche of the standby loan for Ukraine; the tranche amounts to the USD 3.3 bln. The IMF has announced that the cooperation program amendments, specifically the maximum permissible budget deficit volume, have been approved.

According to a note from the Ministry of Finance, the sovereign debt grew 0.3% MoM in June to USD 12.54 bln while the sovereign-guaranteed debt was up 21.0% to USD 7.95 bln. Therefore, the gross sovereign foreign debt has grown 7.5% to USD 20.49 bln.

According to preliminary data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the BOP deficit in 1H09 reached USD 7.3 bln, compared to USD 6.6 bln in January-May 2009. The BOP deficit in June reached USD 732 mln, compared to a USD 275 mln deficit in May.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, industrial output grew 3.1% MoM in June (1.3% MoM growth in May). Therefore, industrial output has fallen 27.5% YoY in June (31.8% YoY decline in May) and 31.1% YoY in January-June (31.9% YoY in January-May).

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee, the merchandise balance dropped 74.9% YoY to USD 2.2 bln in Jan-May 2009. Merchandise exports in Jan-May fell 44.1% to USD 14.4 bln while merchandise imports fell 52.0% to USD 16.6 bln. Compared to Jan-Apr, merchandise exports in Jan-May grew 25.6% while imports grew 24.0%.