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Economy and politics

Economy and politics
May 13, 2010Services trade surplus reaches USD 1.4 bln in 1Q10

The services trade balance in 1Q10 recorded a USD 1,431 mln surplus. Service exports grew by 19% YoY in 1Q10, while service imports were flat. Taking into account the previously announced USD 656 mln deficit in Ukraine’s merchandise balance in 1Q10, the trade balance showed a USD 775 mln quarterly surplus, the first since 3Q06 and the highest since 1Q05.

Economy and politics
April 16, 2010Gov talks on privatisation and liquidity injection in 2010

The government initiated additional UAH 20 bln (USD 2.5 bln) capital injection into the recapitalised banks and UAH 20 bln (USD 2.5 bln) on VAT reimbursement, said vice-prime minister Sergiy Tigipko. To finance planned liquidity injection, the government may receive UAH 15-20 bln from privatisation and USD 3 bln from foreign borrowings.

Economy and politics
April 6, 2010Fitch confirmed Kyiv B- rating with negative outlook

International rating agency Fitch confirmed Kyiv long-term rating in foreign and national currency at B- level with negative outlook. According to the agency the main reasons of such an outlook are increased risks of debt refinancing, currency risks, worsening city budget deficit and decreased liquidity.

Economy and politics
March 17, 2010Industrial production up 5.6% YoY in February

Ukraine’s industrial output grew by 5.6% in February 2010 YoY. However, it lost 0.7% compared to January 2010, mostly, due to the 5.3% MoM decline in mining activity.

Economy and politics
March 17, 2010S&P increases ratings for a series of Ukrainian companies

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services upgraded the ratings and prospects of a list of Ukrainian companies. In particular, there was an upgrade in a long-term credit rating of AR Crimea, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Luhansk from CCC+ to B- with a “positive” outlook. The long-term rating of Kyiv was confirmed at the CCC+ level, while the outlook was upgraded to “stable”. Lviv and Odesa ratings remained at the level of CCC+ with a “negative” outlook. S&P also improved the outlook of Kredobank and Alfa Bank (Ukraine) from “negative” to “stable” with a CCC+ ratings.

Economy and politics
March 16, 2010Merchandise trade deficit totals USD 314 mln in January

The merchandise trade balance saw a USD 314 mln deficit in January 2010, compared to the USD 396 mln surplus in January 2009. Monthly exports grew by 24% YoY to USD 3.0 bln, while imports increased 63% YoY to USD 3.3 bln.

Economy and politics
March 15, 2010S&P increases Ukrainian sovereign rating

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services upgraded the foreign-currency sovereign credit rating for Ukraine from 'CCC+/C' to 'B-/C'. Standard & Poor's also raised its local-currency sovereign credit rating for Ukraine from 'B-/C'to 'B/B'. The outlook on the ratings was upgraded to positive.

Economy and politics
March 1, 2010Real 2009 GDP lost 15%, official data

The State Statistics Committee released some initial official data on 2009 GDP. In nominal terms, it totalled UAH 913 bln, which is down 4% compared to UAH 950 bln in 2008. In USD terms, nominal GDP totalled USD 114 bln, which is a 37% contraction compared to USD 180 bln in 2008. GDP per capita in 2009 totalled USD 2.5 thsd.

Economy and politics
February 16, 2010Ukraine’s trade balance: better but still needs improvement

Ukraine’s trade balance in 2009 exhibited a USD 1.4 bln deficit. This is a significant improvement compared to the USD 13.3 bln trade deficit in 2008. Notably, the merchandise trade deficit in 2009 contracted to USD 5.7 bln from the USD 18.6 bln deficit in 2008. The monthly trade deficit in December 2009 widened to USD 0.9 bln, compared to USD 0.5 bln deficit registered in November 2009. The balance of goods was marked by a USD 4.3 bln surplus, a moderate decline compared to the USD 5.3 bln surplus witnessed in 2008.

Economy and politics
February 9, 2010Inflation accelerates in January 2010

CPI reached 1.8% MoM in January compared to 0.9% MoM in December 2009. This indicator is currently at its 12-month high. Compared to January 2009, CPI rose 11.1%, which is low compared to previous years, but still significant given theh 14% real GDP contraction in 2009. Inflation in the food sector, at 3.2% MoM, was the biggest contributing factor to January’s CPI. The prices of sugar (+14.7% MoM), vegetables (+14.3% MoM), cheese (+9.8% MoM), milk (+7.7% MoM) and butter (+6.2% MoM) saw the most significant hike.

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