Economy and politics

Sokrat participated in the third monthly macroeconomic consensus forecast organized by Expert business magazine (Kyiv, Ukraine), which climaxed in a round table discussion on Wednesday, May 20, 2009. Most of Ukraine’s leading brokerage houses and think tanks participated.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee, foreign trade came close to balance in 1Q09, with a deficit of USD 0.42 bln announced. This figure followed an earlier announcement of a USD 1.44 bln merchandise balance deficit and compares drastically with a USD 3.79 bln trade balance deficit in 1Q08.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee, the industrial output fell 31.8% YoY in April 2009 as compared to a 30.4% YoY decline last month. The output has shrunk 4.8% MoM (but given a shorter month an average daily output has dropped 1.6%).

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee, the net FDI inflow to Ukraine was USD 1.11 bln in 1Q09 compared to USD 3.41 bln in 1Q08. The FDI volume, therefore, has grown 11% and has reached USD 36.53 bln.

According to a note from the State Statistics Committee, merchandise balance in 1Q09 were USD 1.44 bln, compared to USD 5.03 bln in 1Q08.

According to a note from Moody’s Investors Service, the agency has downgraded Ukraine’s foreign and local currency government bond ratings from B1 to B2 and assigned a negative outlook.

According to a note issued by the IMF on Friday, May 8, 2009, the IMF mission has approved the provision of the second tranche, worth USD 2.8 bln, to Ukraine within the USD 16.4 bln emergency stand-by loan program approved in November 2008. Therefore, the total volume of the loan provided thus far has grown to USD 7.3 bln.

On May 8, EU leaders and the representatives of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Armenia announced in Prague the formation of the EU’s Eastern Partnership program.

According to an announcement from the National Bank of Ukraine, the BOP deficit in March shrank to USD 1.29 bln, compared to USD 2.14 bln in February 2009. The 1Q09 BOP deficit was USD 5.23 bln, compared to USD 0.14 bln in 1Q08.

According to an announcement from the IMF’s Managing Director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Fund is planning to soften requirements for the budget and financial policies of Ukraine and other countries that the IMF is cooperatng with on anti-crisis activities. The details were not revealed, however.